Part 2: A look at the Friars' roster needs and how the staff is meeting those needs - the missing scorer (2024)

In Part 1 of this series, I outlined the five needs I saw for the Friars and walked through how the coaching staff has filled four of them: we discussed the needs they seemed to have filled: #5 cover for Bryce Hopkins at the 4, #4 a 3-and-D wing, #3 point guard help for Jayden Pierre and #2 a starting center. Part 2 looks at the need that is still to be met.

#1: Herein lies the big question mark. The Friars hahve still not filled the most glaring need on the roster, and that is a perimeter primary scorer. Devin Carter was a sensation last winter, and he is now headed to the NBA, leaving in his wake a massive hole. Carter, of course, was the consummate two-way player, which means there is offense and defense to replace. On defense, I’m less concerned, since the combination of Joseph, Essandoko, Erhunmwunse and greater depth on the wing should help the Friars stay near the top of the sport on that end of the floor (not to mention Hopkins’ impending return to dominate the defensive glass and defend as a big wing). On offense, as noted in Part 1, the Friars struggled all season and now have to replace both Josh Oduro (his name will pop up again later) and Carter. Head coach Kim English needs a player who can create shots for himself and others, soaking up a high usage while maintaining at least OK efficiency.

There are still many Portal options to fill this role, each offering a different mixture of size, experience and demonstrated ability at a high level. The player of this ilk Providence has been linked with most is B.J. Freeman, whom (like Essandoko, Abdur-Rahim and Joseph) English saw first-hand in a 33-point performance by Freeman for Milwaukee at the AMP in November. Freeman missed seven games this season due to injury and also had to play out of position at point guard with a lack of other options for Milwaukee coach Bart Lundy, but he still finished 17th nationally at 21.1 ppg and showed his distribution ability while carrying a ridiculous 33% usage and maintaining a 107 offensive rating. His 6-foot-6 size, passing and rebounding ability allow him to play up and down the lineup — he finished 2nd in the Horizon League in assist rate and seventh in defensive-rebounding rate in league games this year.

The leap from a true mid-major to a primary scorer role at a high-major is a large one, but we have some data from this year for players who attempted the same jump last offseason. Here are the “up” transfers who had usage rates of at least 28% (read: very high), offensive ratings of at least 100 (read: efficient enough) and assist rates of at least 13% last year and how they did in their transfer season:

Those are a lot of numbers, but the very high-level summary is that, unless you transferred to Virginia, you probably were at least a very solid contributor this year. This list brings me comfort that Freeman or other potential targets (see below) would do just fine in Providence.

The most common thing that happens to these players is that their efficiency (via offensive rating) stays about the same or even improves while the usage decreases significantly. As a whole, that’s what the data shows — offensive rating improves by 2% while usage declines by 27%. A 27% decline off Freeman’s 2023-24 usage would still put him at 24%, the usage of a first or second option. There are also players like Dennis and Cook, who maintained a very high usage but took a hit on their efficiency as the level of competition increased. And then there’s our own Oduro, who experienced a slight decrease in usage (still the second highest in this cohort) but actually improved his efficiency, a remarkable accomplishment. It’s not outlandish to call him the best high-usage up transfer in the country (besides Dalton Knecht, who actually increased his usage from 27% at Northern Colorado to 30% at Tennessee and yet was more efficient in becoming a first-team All-American).

Along with Freeman, another player who fits this high-usage, up-transfer category is Campbell’s Anthony Dell’Orso, who entered the transfer portal last week, and there has been nary a peep on where he’s headed. He’s a native of Melbourne, Australia, which creates a natural connection to Australia native and Providence assistant Nate Tomlinson. Dell’Orso and Freeman are similar in size, both good rebounders for their positions and good shooters. Dell’Orso, with two seasons of eligibility remaining, may have more upside, appears to be better at navigating a ball screen and has proved a more adept finisher at the rim. Freeman has the edge in finding the right shots (3’s and rim shots) and has proved himself to be a higher-level passer.

There are still may other names who could fill this spot, though finding the right fit won’t be simple. This is a player who is ready to take on a major scoring burden on the wing at the high-major level but who can fit in personality-wise to a team with returners with a particular #mindset, a recovering former-all-league player (Hopkins) and a couple of veteran transfers with eyes on major playing time. The Friars need scoring but not at the expense of a personality that could topple chemistry.

Here are two additional names to consider:

Dion Brown, UMBC: Brown has been vaguely connected with Providence and is a native of the Berkshires. He was a standout with the Retrievers last season and, even to the point of the flowing hair, seems to be a mid-major version of Carter. He can rebound really well for his 6-3 size, is active on defense, athletic and makes plays. His ability to play around the basket for his size (69% at the rim is excellent for a player of his size) makes him particularly intriguing. He is set to visit Boston College soon.

T.J. Bamba, Villanova: The 6-foot-5 Bamba is a Bronx native who started his career at Washington State, emerging as an honorable mention all-Pac-12 performer as a sophom*ore in Pullman before heading back East to the Mainline for his junior season at Villanova. Much like Tyler Burton and Hakim Hart, Bamba was a transfer who saw his production decline for a Villanova offense that seemed stuck in the mud most of the season (and continues to wallow in the mire this spring). His rate stats were largely unchanged, though his usage dipped from 26% to 20%. Unlike Freeman, Dell’Orso and Brown, he’s shown the ability to carry a big load for a major-conference squad and, in different circ*mstances, play as a solid third option (behind Dixon and Mark Armstrong last year). He could be a seamless fit in a moderate usage role (think Oduro pre-Hopkins injury last year) or could take on the burden of a leading scorer (think Oduro post-Hopkins injury, not positionally but in terms of role size). He’s looking for a coach who will be upfront with him about his role and is the kind of personality that could quickly mesh with the players already in Friartown.

Here’s a chart that shows players from two seasons ago (2022-23) who played in high-major leagues and were between 6-foot-2 and 6-foot-8, had an offensive rating of at least 100, a usage of at least 25% and at least 40 3-pointers made:

It’s an elite list, and though Bamba falls toward the lower third in terms of overall performance, all of these players were somewhere from good to superb two years ago and most of the ones who came back this past season played at an all-league level. It’s something Bamba could be capable of if given the proper situation. (Bamba announced a top-six Friday, which did not include the Friars.)

And, remember, new prospects are still entering the Portal daily. Just today, VCU’s Max Shulga entered the Portal. He combines shooting, passing and positional rebounding at 6-foot-5, albeit at a lower usage. Coach English and his staff will find some scoring, but we may need to be patient.

The Overview: Without knowing the final piece of the puzzle, it’s hard to evaluate where PC likely fits into the pecking order (either in the Big East or nationally), but the roster as currently constructed is perhaps the deepest I can remember at Providence with the kind of versatility that makes a coaching staff salivate. Here’s a look at the current 9-man rotation vs. the Friars’ two most successful recent rosters:

This roster offers potentially high-level spot-up shooting and elite defense, but the one thing that’s missing is enough shot creation. Some potential creators could take a step forward (perhaps Pierre, Corey Floyd or Justyn Fernandez) and a fully healthy Bryce Hopkins is an all-league caliber two-way player, but that is some wishcasting that English can ill-afford if he plans to compete near the top of the Big East. Besides shot creation, the biggest concern is turnovers. Pierre and Bensley Joseph have both run higher-than-desired turnover rates in a combined five college seasons and Christ Essandoko’s turnover numbers are also concerning, though more explainable by his lack of experience and rust after sitting out a year.

I do think that, with the right final piece mixed with improvement year-to-year for players already on the roster, a top-three Big East defense and a league-average Big East offense are on the table, which should put Providence somewhere in the 25th-40th range nationally as a baseline entering the season. This would be a major accomplishment considering what was lost in a Big East Player of the Year, an all-league-caliber center and a wing (Ticket Gaines) with disruptive defensive ability and five years of experience.

As a wise sage (and Friars fan) said just Thursday night, we are blessed at Providence to be in a position to attract the players we need to compete year to year, and it’s due to a confluence of factors, but one of them is the passionate fan support (without exaggeration) rivaled or exceeded only by Kentucky and a handful of other programs. Players understand that Friartown is different, and it puts the PC basketball in an enviable position — we’re not UConn (sadly) but we’re doing OK. I’m excited for what the rest of the offseason has to bring and for how Coach English and his staff develop this team based on the vision he proclaimed in March. This new era of college basketball can seem disorientating, but it allows you and me to me a part of the program in a new way, and it’s a trade-off that could enable the Friars to thrive.