Let’s use Statcast’s expected stats to see which hitters have been losing the battle with “Lady Luck.” These hitters can also be trade targets if you believe — to quote Frank Sinatra by way of Frank Loesser, “I know the way you’ve treated other guys you’ve been with. Luck, be a lady with me.”
In other words, maybe you not only get a reversion to actual stats comporting with expected ones, but even exceeding them. Of course, the foundational performance of these hitters could also move in either direction. Again, in this space, we’re just trying to bring into sharp relief the players who should be hitting better. The extent to which that is predictive is, like all of our data, an abstraction, akin to projecting how many angels will dance on the head of a pin.
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I will also note roster rates. At a minimum, these players would never be dropped if their expected stats more reasonably translated into actual ones. And really, what’s the difference going forward? But to be clear, I would give expected stats more weight than actual, at least 60/40.
(Note: Stats courtesy of Statcast/Baseball Savant.)
Catcher: Ivan Herrera is just 5% rostered and playing every day in the absence of Willson Contreras (broken arm). He should be hitting .275 with a .429 slugging, playable in all two-catcher formats and in single-catcher formats in Only leagues. His actual batting average is close enough to expected, but his slugging is well short. Note that he’s not an extreme ground-ball hitter.
First Base: Vinnie Pasquantino ranks 41st among qualified hitters in expected stats. His actual stats rank 151st (wOBA — sort of a collect-all bucket for hitters). To put it in more relatable terms, his expected average should be .274 (not .225), and his slugging should be .493 (not .390). His hard-hit rate of 47.2% (according to Baseball-Reference) is an all-time high. His career strikeout rate is an outstanding 12.3% — 14% this year. He’s 78% rostered on Yahoo.
Middle Infield: We don’t have a second baseman who fits the bill, so I’m going with two unlucky middles, both at the shortstop position. Francisco Lindor should be the 72nd hitter, but he’s 191st. His average should be .270. His slugging should be .468. In other words, Lindor should be having a season that fits right in on the back of his baseball card. Instead he’s hitting .210 with a .367 slugging and is viewed as a horrible bust by Mets fans and those who roster him in fantasy. He’s 98% rostered but I suspect his managers have had it. Going forward, I would project him exactly as I did as on draft day.
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Shortstop: Corey Seager is generally unlucky and, when we see that, we start to worry that his fate doesn’t lie in the stars as much as it does in himself. In other words, what is there about Seager that causes him to underachieve? In 2021 it was homers. In 2022, and again this year, it’s average due to an impossibly below average on balls in play (BABIP) given his contact profile. Maybe he’s so aggressive on the first pitch (only hitter who swings at most of them) that he’s not giving himself a chance to get a really fat one. But I will keep betting that he should be a lot better, more like the 11th hitter, where he ranks in expected stats, and not No. 70 in actual.
Third Base: Christopher Morel is a hitter who we expect will be streaky. But that’s in actual stats given his propensity to strike out. His expected stats shouldn’t ever vary significantly from his actual ones. As of Tuesday, he should be hitting .264 (not .198) and slugging .497 (not .374). I’m surprised he’s still 88% rostered (but he should be widely rostered).
Outfield: Jesús Sánchez is rostered in only 1% of Yahoo leagues. I’m not saying he’s great, but he’s definitely a player who can be played. He should be hitting .283 with a .469 slugging. That’s a Top 70 hitter and not No. 219, where he ranks in his actual stats. Note that he’s probably not going to play much against lefties, where most of his bad luck has been concentrated. He also adds speed.
Outfield:Brandon Nimmo is a column favorite. But when the players show up, I note them. If it’s over and over again, so be it. There is not much Nimmo fatigue — he’s still 81% rostered. But he should be the 13th best hitter, not the 87th. Forget steals, but his averages should be .277/.513. That ISO equates to 30-to-35 full-season HR upside. He should help you in the category going forward.
Outfield: Lars Nootbaar is Nimmo-like and, for this year, in the (bad) luck department, too. He has earned a. 273 batting average and a .495 slugging. That’s a plus in mixed leagues in average and in power. He’s just 36% rostered and it should be near 100%, especially in category/OBP leagues.
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Designated Hitter: Ryan O’Hearn is the ninth-best hitter in expected stats. Last time I did this, he was No. 1, so he’s regressing. In actual stats, he’s 45th. He’s not going to play against lefties, which we always say is a mixed bag in costing you counting stats but helping you in averages. I get that you’re basically trading small losses in three categories for just a decent gain in one (batting average). So it’s far from ideal, especially at a corner. He’s 26% rostered, which is more reflective of his actual stats. His Statcast profile should be rostered in 100% of 15-team mixed leagues and about 75% of 12-team ones.
(Top photo of Lars Nootbaar: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports)
Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino
